jg,
I think we are splitting hairs now. Perhaps after this coming cycle with the benefit of hindsight one might be able to find data points illustrating a 50% median decline but that doesn’t mean a specific house lost that much. The median is a rough measure and I think we need to be a bit more pragmatic. I’d say it was safe to say that around the prior peak there was an extended period of time whereby the median home price was around 650 and at the trough there was an extended period of time whereby it went down to around 450 representing a nominal decline of around 30%. Given all this, if history repeats itself nominal declines of 30% are forthcoming and it is reasonable to assume you will be able to find one with a decline fo that magnitude.
