JG,
Glad to hear you are recovering well. I guess you got the flowers.
When I look at the graph I see exactly 2 data points above 700K at the peak time period. In a thinly traded market like LJ at a time when volume fell through the floor, I have a hard time calling a meaningful peak at 750K. If so there was a major recovery in Spring of 1992 that we werent aware of previously. Similarly, I see very little under $450K in the trough. It looks alot more like statistical noise to me as a result of the a possible change in the ditrbution of homes sold rather than a change in pricing. Does the data you purchased have sales volumes? Not that you dont have plenty to do but I’d be interested to see what that looked graphically.
The good news is that I see a 4 year trough between mid 92 and mid 96 where prices were at a pretty consistent level. Assuming, as you expect, that we see the samething happen again, that would give you plenty of time to find the “right house” rather than “any house” when things are at or near the bottom.
