Jazz there is no doubt that the astute buyer is the one who has patience and is willing to walk away from 99 deals to get the 100th deal that is the best. However be careful about projecting your personal valuatins with other buyers. That is, the vast majority of buyers DO NOT act in this manner. More often then not they are driven by other factors and are more concerned with moving on to other stages of their lives then getting the bottom most dollar. In the same breathe I would say realtors manipulate them and indeed capitalize on that, no argument there.
Of course most sellers are delusional and DOM is a good indicator to perhaps gauge how sharply you as a buyer want to throw your lowball in at. DOM also may indicate the stubborness and level of delusion that sellers may have and that they are hopeless and will choose to never sell the home. You never know but if you have the time and patience, taking that approach is a good idea. To your point, making sure your agent understands that approach is very important. In the end though sellers are sellers and your agent cannot persuade the seller to do what you want them to do. You try long enough though and something should happen.
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BG I agree that markets did flourish under high rates but comparing the periods you brought up to say the early 80s and there was a pronounced effect. This is what I am referring to, a calamity of sorts. Also I would point out that in the periods you discussed there was strong wage inflation that helped consumers keep up. I would argue that we have not seen the wage inflation over the past several years that would be necessary to keep up which is one of the drivers of keeping costs where they are at. In the absence of wage inflation the market will indeed suffer if rates move substantially higher and lending standards continue to tighten. I agree with you about the cash buyers and investor entry into the market. However as rates do rise you will indeed see an investor shift out of the money to alternate vehicles that will provide them returns for the cashpiles they have. The reason you see those investments now is… well where the heck else can you put your money?
