I’ve been following this site for a bit now. I purchased my home in Jan 03 for $350K, sold it in June 05 for $495K, and have been renting it back since in anticipation of the RE market doing what it is now doing.
I track the stock market closely as well. I subscribe to Bob Brinkers newsletter. Brinker recommended exiting the market in January 2000 and in March 2003 recommended full invesment in the market. The following is an excerpt from the 1/4/08 newsletter:
“Marketimer continues to estimate real GDP growth within a range of 1.7% to 2.7% for 2008. Our estimate is close to the revised Federal Reserve forecast of 1.8% to 2.5%. Although 2007 real GDP averaged %3.1 for the first three quarters, we expect fourth quarter growth to be slow. If this proves correct, the die will be cast for slow growth in 2008.
The new jobs figures are key to 2008 growth. Consumer spending accounts for close to 70% of total goods and services. The paychecks generated from new jobs provide the cash-flow necessary to promote economic growth. The monthly average of new jobs created over the past three months is slightly above 100,000. The key to 2008 economic growth will be the rate at which new jobs expand. U.S. exports increased 19.1% in the third quarter, and remain a key factor in the new jobs equation. The weak dollar has made U.S. exports more attrative and U.S. multinational companies are benefiting.
A 21.4% year-over-year increase in energy prices contributed to the 4.3% headline inflation rate for the year ended November 30. Core inflation is tame, with the core index up 2.3% year-over-year. These rates are remarkably low in the face of a 37% annual increase in the cost of gasoline and during a period of time when the U.S. has abosrbed a huge quantity of imported goods and the U.S. dollar has been weak. So far, higher oil prices have had very little effect on core inflation
Although consumers continue to battle the headwinds of higher energy prices and the housing recession, they have shown a great deal of resilience in dealing with these challenges. U.S. retail sales rose sharply during November with an increase of 1.2%. Excluding autos, auto parts and gasoline stations, retail sales rose 1.1% in November. On a year-over-year basis, November retail sales increased 6.9%. So far, consumers are learning to deal with the taxing effect of high energy prices.
