Its unfolding a bit fast, but think about it. Even if we didn’t have job losses and even if everyone who took out a mortgage could somehow keep their jobs, interest rates are up quite a bit from their 04/05 lows. That alone spells doom for the RE speculator crowd. Again lets go out on a limb here and assume that for every house there is a greater fool. Todays greater fool can qualify for a much smaller loan than yesterdays, even with the most exotic of programs. In RE market terms this is unfolding FAST!
I remember a year ago when one of my co-workers thought 07 was going to be ground zero(I was a bit incredulous.) It may still be, but its looking like fall of 06. Time tables are moving up.
Interest rates are up, check.
Job market is flat, check.
Credit standards are rising, check. (This is the last nail in the coffin.)
What I came to love about Rich’s analysis was that it was conservative. He showed you the facts he had but drew fairly conservative conclusions. The more reading I have done, the more this becomes apparent. Besides anyone who is reading this blog is a contrarian, so Chris you are still ok.
