Its fun to go back and read through old posts like this. If people timed things perfectly they could have come out ahead. On the otherhand if they had hung on they came out not much worse for the wear. Of course hindsight is 20/20
Here’s an example.
I paid $400K in 99
House peaked in 05/06 around $925K
House bottomed in 09/10/11 around $725K
House is now about 80% above prior peak and I still have that low RE 1999 tax basis
Had I theoretically timed it perfectly by selling at prior peak and then buying back in 2013 when it was obvious things were starting to come back it was about $825K. I would have missed out on 7 to 8 years of principal payments, incurred moving costs at least once (more likely 3 times) and my annual RE tax bill would be double. On the otherhand I may have done well investing that equity so that counter balances some of that.
I have one friend that did this perfectly. He went from one of the smallest homes in our community, rented here for several years and then bought one of the biggest and nicest homes as short sale. He trades bonds and did well with his equity during the downturn. I dont know another that timed things that perfectly.
However for many if not most, anything but perfect execution like him didnt produce far superior results. There is a very good case that most were best served staying in place.
I wonder how all the folks on this thread made out. I know things did not go well for the protagonist. A very good friend works with her ex and I got all the tawdry details. Not gonna get into details but trainwreck would be a generous characterization.
