It’s definitely interesting to hear everyone’s opinions. I think we’re going to try to buy. Inventory is tight right now but we have time on our side so we can wait for the right place at an okay price. I did notice a bunch of price drops at the end of summer last year so fingers crossed the same thing happens this year.
I’m leaning towards keeping the condo too. I ran numbers today on keeping the condo vs putting the money in the stock market, assuming 7 percent annual return in the market, 3 percent annual rent increases, and 2 percent appreciation (and really, I think the numbers for rent and appreciation are quite conservative considering actual historical data) and it still comes out way in favor of the condo. And yes, I considered maintenance, improvements, less than 100 percent occupancy, depreciation, PALs, depreciation clawback on the sale (I’m an accountant).
Again, we don’t need access to that capital any time soon. We would be keeping the condo for the long haul. I could see our future kids using it for college or us even retiring in it when we’re older.
Yes, it’s a risk to keep money in a rental, but we’re young, are saving like crazy, and I think some calculated risk is how you build wealth. People are trending towards the overwhelmingly negative right now on home prices — yes, prices will dip at some point, but assuming less than 2 percent annual appreciation over 30 years in coastal CA is a bit silly IMO.
