It’s a fact that almost 70% of all mortgages and refinances in San Diego County in the last 2 years are adjustable. In Phoenix it’s 40%, in Wyoming 25%. The majority of resets start next year.
I don’t put any faith in forecasting “by gut”.
A correction for you. It’s kind of cute that you say “your numbers”. The numbers are not mine. Mortgages are tracked by various firms, such as First American Real Estate Solutions and LoanPerformance, so it’s their numbers.