It is not exactly speculation, there is a hard number that can be derived from the bond yield on a daily basis that tells us the % likelihood of a raise up or decline in rates by the Fed. I do not know the formula off the top of my head, it is not integral to how I trade so I do not care.
If you email CNBC you can probably get how the calculation is figured. Prior to today, I think it was over a 90% probability for a cut before years end. Due to the big gap down close today, that % would be lower now. For those who foresee a huge slowdown, it is an inconsistent position to be against a rate cut. If you get your big recession, you will get cuts to combat it. The Fed is being wise IMO to hold off using their ammo until it is absolutely needed. a 3.5% GDP number like the last one, is nowhere near low enough to get a rate cut right now. The longer they can hold off the more room they buy themselves to stimulate things if they get really weak.
