It cracks me up whenever someone predicts how long the downturn will last, Alex comes out of the closet with senseless comments insinuating that our data-based estimations are as out of whack as he is.
I personally think 2012-2013 is conservative.
Both of the last downturns went as far, and long as they went up. We’ve been going up since 1996, around 200%.
People think it’s insane that prices could drop 50% or more, but it’s just as insane that they went up as much as they did. They fell that far and for that long before, why wouldn’t they now? Particularly with retiring baby-boomers as TC said (haven’t seen you in a while BTW Cow, wb) the tightnened lending standards, the $1 Trillion in loans still to reset, and the coming recession.
