In think that Alex makes a good point regarding predictions: It is really silly to say that the market will bottom in 2012 – why not 2011? Or 2014? No one really knows. And the same is true for the % drop in inflation-adjusted prices from peak to trough: will it be 20% or 60%? How fast will prices drop over this period? Most of it up front in 2007-08? Or evenly over the long downturn period?
We know where the market is headed, but we just don’t know the details regarding years or exact % price drops.
That said, however, I think that Alex’s true colors come through when he made this fallacious argument that we often hear from RE industry shills:
What is someone with the money and large family going to do? Rent for 5 years until 2012? Hell no. people need to live life today and not wait for something they have no idea will ever happen.
