In that immediate neighborhood I counted about 20 active listings, and there are 6 sales listed since 01/2007. By my count that indicates that even if no more listings pop up it would take over a year to sell all of them at this pace.
Of the 6 sales, 2 appear to have been short sales. That’s going to put a crimp on pricing. I didn’t look through all the actives, but the 1st one on the list is an REO listing.
This is kind of an interesting neighborhood in terms of pricing because when they started out in 2003 you could buy one of these 3,800 SqFt homes for about $700k; then as the golf course and more of the common elements got completed the prices topped out in excess of $1.6mil. This area continued to increase even as some of the other areas cooled off and entered the decline. This area topped out at late as mid-2006. Now it seems to be unwinding just as quickly. The highest sale recently was $1.465 and that home reportedly had $300k in upgrades and site improvements.
Based on original purchase prices in the actives and the recent closed sales it looks like most of those sellers will do no worse than lose closing costs. That is, if they can sell at all right now.
Some of them will clear a nice profit, maybe $300 – $400k. I think that all of the listings above $1.5 (and that’s about a third of them) are wasting their time.
It’s not exactly what I’d call a battlefield yet, but right now anyone who bought in the year prior to the peak is probably in the red right now.
