In my opinion it is a risk verses reward scenario. Personally I believe that there is alot more risk of depreciation then reward. If you do purchase now, and you are going to be living in the home for several years then you will be okay. Basically no matter what the market does, you don’t care because you are not planning on moving. However, I think that you would be well served to hold off at least another year.
One thing that I consistently see as a Realtor is that buyers (especially first time buyers) feel as if they will miss once in a lifetime opportunities when they pass on various homes. I have seen that the builders have done a good job reducing thier inventory over the last few months. They have also been prudent and slashed thier prices and adjusted thier books for wall street. So yeah it doesn’t surprise me that they have reduced incentives.
Again though, try to be patient if you can. I think this spring will provide us all with some very important data. If the inventory does what we think it will do, you may run into some great opportunities by the middle or end of the summer. There is another wild card involved as well and that is the possibility of foreclosure. How would you feel if you bought your home but then read about foreclosures in your subdivision where the homes are offered at 50k or 100k less then you paid.
Yes the difference you are seeing now is only 7k ( I assume the rent verses buy calculator factored in property tax, mello roos, homeowners insurance as well correct?) however the potential for lucrative savings is very real. Also before going in and striking a deal with the builder consider getting representation from a Realtor. They not only could negotiate a better deal for you, but they can rebate you commission they get from the builder.
I am in a similar dilema as you. We currently rent a home but we desperately need and want a bigger home. I have been the one holding out and my wife really has been pushing. Try to not let emotion factor into your decision.
