In 24 years of investing I have learned one great truth: I cannot pick the bottom or top of any particular investment device. I’ve gotten pretty close a few times, but been way off to my detriment as well. A missed call here or there can become very costly. I have to admit that I do chuckle at those who believe that they can consistently time markets. I just don’t know anybody who has done it effectively over great spans of time. If some “system” exists that can achieve such a great feat, make no mistake we would know about it. Moves do need to be made over time, but the more moves one makes the greater the odds of stepping on a landmine and, as they say, “blowing yourself up”.
Very few professional investors beat the market year after year. It just doesn’t happen. The stats are what they are.
