IMHO, in five years or so, this site, and other bubble sites like it, will have been largely discredited.
My reasoning is simple. Prices have gone up 150 percent or more in San Diego and other Cali metro areas over the past 5-6 years. Unless prices decline signficantly over the next few years, then, ipso facto, there has been no bubble and this and other sites have been quite wrong.
If something goes up in price 150 percent and then goes down 10-15 percent, that is not a bubble, that is a serious runup in prices followed by a relatively minor retrenchment.
And I don’t think we are going to see major declines in prices. I expect nominal price declines in the order of 10-15 percent over the next 3-5 years, followed by flat prices for another 3-5 years. That is not a bubble-bursting scenario.
I hope I’m wrong, because I’d like to buy some real estate.
