I’m gonna stick to my guns and guess that we’ll ultimately see a 35%-40% decline in the median SD County home price – or about double what we’ve seen so far. Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon, East County, etc. I see at a 50% decline in the median. The higher end areas – La Jolla, RSF, etc. – I’d guess at a 20% decline. I haven’t changed my views because I’m not really surprised by what we’re seeing… yet.
But, I could be wrong. I just think that on an inflation-adjusted basis, once we’re down another 20% (nominal), you’re going to see a hell of a lot more people able to afford homes and, hell, we’ll probably even see some people start to migrate INto SD County again. Again, I could be wrong, but it’s hard to convince me at this point that once the rent/purchase trade-off becomes a coin flip from an economic standpoint that people aren’t going to buy en masse. But we’ve still got quite a ways to go to get there.
