If you were to graph the pricing trends and put them up on a map, I think you’d see the trends are progressing from the outskirts to the center. By that, I mean that – all other factors being comparable – the areas located farther from employment are showing more losses than the areas close to the metro areas. Commute time to work is a huge factor for most people.
I would anticipate an area like Scripps to be among the last areas to show significant decline and among the first areas to recover. Valley Center, Ramona and Alpine will be among the areas that lead the decline.
However, unless this correction gets cut short for some reason, the prime areas will still end up – proportionately speaking – priced relative to the outlying areas. Must sell transactions occur all across the economic spectrum. If the same house in Scripps is currently 30% more than it would be in Escondido it’ll eventually settle a little higher proportionately, but it won’t be 50% higher. Let alone 100%.
