If he does it at the same time on a regular basis, I would take the high road and wait for him. When he walks off with it, I would confront him directly.
If he claims it was a first time, I would tell him that’s not what the video says.
I’m not sure I’d give him a copy of the video – that gives him insight into what you can and can’t see from your cameras.
If he doesn’t do it at the same time regularly, then maybe your idea of wrapping one up and leaving it on his porch saying “it’s on me this time” is a great alternative.