If anyone here can perfectly predict peaks, they ought to be really, really rich right now. There are a lot of really smart people on these boards, but there is no clear consensus on when the bottom will hit on the RE market. There is ALWAYS uncertainty in the future. You can rationally make good predictions, but perfectly timing peaks is a lot like getting a hole in one… possible, but really hard to do consistently.
“unlike the stock market which is nearly perfectly efficient.”
This has not been my impression. The stock market is quite efficient, but there still is a lot of irrationality. One only has to look back to the tech bubble to see that. “Hot” stocks can be overbought, sending the price skyrocketing with no real earnings/growth basis. Companies routinely are under or overpriced. Individuals will continue to make moves on “hunches” or “a hot tip” of purely anecdotal evidence.
