I’d think about staying the course your already on. Personally, I’d look into Vista or the areas with less than ideal schools (which keeps the price down) since that will not matter in your situation. Also, since everything has been going up these zones have gone up a bit. However, not nearly as much in my opinion.
I’m very similar in the risk averse and do not know who to trust areas so I just do a lot of research myself. I’d do the same if I were you.
I feel like most people that get killed in real estate do not have the reasonable approach it seems you do. They typically buy based on appreciation and value rather than rents and monthly cash flow. I was essentially trying to answer the same questions as you a couple years ago on this site and trying to figure out a scenario that would force rents down. I’m ok with not making money some years, but my greatest fear is being too risky and losing money. I worked too hard to earn it.
This chart, which Rich helped me find, had a lot to do with my ultimate decision because I wanted it to be driven by data.
