>>I would rather attribute this short success to the overall market bloodbath
Well, it seems you’re mostly correct on that, as the DJ Oil & Gas Index correlates fairly well to the S&P500 over last three months, except it appears the oil and gas sector index was hit harder falling about 5% more (fell further) than the S&P500.
[Personally, it doesn’t matter to me if the overall market correction was the driver because in Oct ’07 I had A LOT more of my portfolio bet on a downside correction in overall stock indexes than I had in short oil sector positions]
Yes, I also plan to start buying oil LONG at $70/bbl, and accelerate my buying as it nears $60. I absolutely view this recession as bringing the LAST opportunity to buy oil at reasonable prices during the first phase of onset of Peak Oil dynamics
Now the one problem with my little prediction of $60 oil might be say 20% (real inflation, not fake gov. stat’s CPI) inflation on the dollar over the next 24 months and oil prices are set in dollars. Maybe I should qualify my prediction by saying I expect oil will hit $60 in inflation-adjusted dollars during the next 24 months.
One other comment, if there is ANY question if the “pro’s” and non-pro’s have been shorting oil based on predicted recession (demand for oil drops) then just TURN ON YOUR TV or read your newspaper! The short oil pundits have been out in full force in the media now for over a month, although I admit my claim is a little thin that they have been shorting oil since Oct ’07.
