I would caution everyone to not get too hung up on a date at this point. It’s okay for entertainment purposes, but timing an RE market requires actively watching factors other than the prices themselves. Prices are an effect, not a cause; and we should be watching for changes to those causes.
For all we know the trend could reverse before 2010; or, it might drag out way beyond. During the last bust I made the mistake of getting into the dating game and I was wrong by virtue of being too optimistic. (if you can believe that!!). In 1991 I thought we’d be done by late 1993; that’s how wrong I was.
The last bust lingered a lot longer and did a lot more damage than I thought it would – the same could happen this time. Just as guessing exactly when the market would peak was futile when it was going up, so too is trying to guess exactly when the bottom will arive while it’s going down. There are all manner of factors, some of which we can’t see at this point, that will contribute to exactly when/where the bottom does arrive.
