I will say one thing about the bloggers vs. the economists controversy. Anonymous bloggers are free to express themselves and offer opinions as they see fit and without fear of repurcussions. The professional economists have their professional reputations to consider, they have their employers’ interests to consider, and they also want to avoid becoming part of the story itself. That is to say, if an economist’s job is to observe and report on the conditions of the market they don’t want their comments to actually affect the conditions they’re supposed to be observing from the outside.
Greenspan took a beating when he repeated Shiller’s “irrational exuberance” comment in a speech. A lot of people felt he stepped outside of his role and actually contributed to the problems he was commenting on.
So I can see why most of these economists would be a little circumspect. It would always be better for them to lag the indicators on the ground because nobody van know when it’s going to reverse course. Better to be wrong by a matter of degree than by direction.
