I used to say that the peak was summer 05, because that’s what Rich was telling us. He was adamant that summer 05 was the peak. About 4 months ago, I changed my mind, based on the inventory data and observations from Bob C. Since then, I have been saying the peak was in spring 04, and I have written at least a dozen posts about that. Quick refresher: change in inventory, and the ripple effect. No gut feeling needed; the data is all there if one knows where to look. For SFH, the peak was in summer 05, as the ripple effect took one year to work up. These charts, as well as the charts I am working on, corroborate that spring 04 was the peak for this cycle. Understanding the ripple effect on the way down would have given any seller the time needed, one year perhaps, to sell.
