I too believe that the strength of global economy is keeping interest rates high. Europe, Australia and New Zealand are raising interest rates. Japan maybe next. If the Fed lowers rates, guess where the money will go?
Notwithstanding a housing crash, the US consumers will not stop shopping at Walmart or Target or even Abercrombie or Nordstrom. After all, even if you’re poor, you have to look fabulous! Consumers will cut back on the SUV first. I don’t see housing affecting imports of consumer goods much.
If anything, a housing crash might spur spending on small consumers purchases. Homeowners walk-away from their jumbo mortgages so they’ll compensate and treat themselves to little things.
