I think you need to be a bit more specific. Your original post mentioned a 3/2 SFR “unit” which to me sounds like condo but then it seems like maybe you mean perhaps a home?
If you know Poway, and it kind of sounds like you do, then you know it is pretty diverse with respect to the housing stock. If you are talking a 1500 sfr in the 350k-400k range then you are ending up in 1 of two spots, out on the east part of Poway to the south of where Poway Road makes the big left turn or perhaps somewhere right off of Pomerado to the north of Poway Road.
Now the biggest misconception about depreciating markets is the timing of them. That is if you think that a home today that drops 20% in the next 2-3 years will then come back to todays price in 5 years total, you are mistaken. Take 400k as a sales price today. Lets run a 7% depreciation for 2 years then 6%… So after year 1 we are at 372k. Then another 7% down from 372k is approximately 346k… Then another 6% is about 325k….Now even if the market took a full on V lets say 6%, then 7% then another 7% to get back to where you were. Plus you need another 4-6% to cover the sales costs…
Can you see where I am going with this? Okay even if Poway didn’t go down another 20% and over say 10-15% you still have a hard time breaking even.
I do know Poway pretty well as it is right around the corner from where I live. My wife LOVES Poway in a big way. If you are thinking long term… then yeah if you find a home you really love then okay I can see it. However if you are buying the home with the idea that you can fix it up and make a profit in 5 years… I would say the odds are not much better then 50/50. I am an active buyer right now but not to buy a home and sell it in a few years.
I know the renting lifestyle is not one I relish. Others do… Family harmony to me is more important but only you can make that call.
