You really want to wait until the conditions are such that the indicators of the future of the housing market show potential growth.
In an earlier post, I made a distinction between one who can tell you the state of the market (a reporter) and one who can tell you the future performance of the market (an analyst). Don’t make the mistake of the reporter and base your decision on simple numbers that only show the current state of the market. Don’t just look at median price and guess the trend while sipping a beer. Look deeper into the numbers, the financial markets, the lending markets, inventory levels, where are the buyers coming from, yada yada.
In other words, evaluate your decision month by month, or every 6 months. You may think 20% now, but if it hits 20% with no hope of an uptick …. well, you know.
Buying at the bottom is difficult and isn’t necessarily optimal. I would prefer to buy after the bottom has passed. The appreciation rate at the bottom is 0, and takes some time to pick up speed. If you miss the bottom by a year, you really aren’t missing that much in terms of appreciation. Plus, waiting until after the bottom helps you really see that the market has turned so you don’t jump the gun. Patience, patience, patience. So hard. So important.
Keep in mind, some on this forum expect a “Dead Cat Bounce” where the market kicks up after a short down cycle, tricking many into thinking the market has passed.
The RE market moves sooooooooooooooooo slowly. It could be 7 years until buying a home in SD gives you appreciation opportunities.
