I think there is an alterior motive to his comments and the comments of others. The builders association economist, the ceo’s of mortgage banks and builders have been putting out some overly negative statements in the last two weeks (maybe true but out of form for them). I am not sure if they are trying to pressure the fed or make people believe we have hit the bottom but I am dumbfounded as to why they would all find god at the same time and become honest.
I am also unsure if I truly believe they got caught with their pants down and that they didn’t see this coming. I discovered this site a year ago and in that year have attained a basic knowledge of a few market dynamics and I saw this coming. I am just some dude who thinks economics is a cool hobby, but the real players do this for a living and have better acccess to information, how did not see this coming? Read some 2006 threads, it’s all there, the subprime implosion, the credit crunch, the foreclosures, the arm re-sets, the must sell inventory driving prices down and thus trapping the arm resets and speculators. Even as early as February there were many on this site that said the end of the summer would be exciting because the spring sales bounce wouldn’t materialize and the mainstream media would pick up on it. All of it happened or is happening, right on schedule as predicted by collections of armchair quarterbacks on a few websites like this one and a few professors (Shiller and Roubini).
There are only a few hundred of us here and we figured it out, I believe they did too and they have an exit strategy. I think the current spin from the spokesholes and the analysts is part of that strategy, but I could be wrong.
