Price went from 370K to 390 K from 1Q 2010 to 2Q 2010, according to these two articles.
Let’s put these two together:
1. Decline of 9.6% from 1Q 2010 to 1Q 2011
gives us a price of ~ 335K in 1Q 2011.
2. Decline of 8.5% from 2Q 2010 to 2Q 2011
gives us a price of 356K in 2 Q 2011.
So, they have become noticably more optimistic in prices between their august prediciton for 1Q 2011 and their current November prediction for 2Q 2011.
Here’s an example of one of their predictions from circa 2007 ….
The source for the prediction (FISERV) in the article predicted a 1.3% decline from April 2007 to April 2008, per the link below.
How did they do ?
The San Diego market declined by ~ 20% in the ensuing 12 months. The average decline PER MONTH was about equal to their precited annual decline.
They published their prediction on the cusp of the most precipitous 18-month decline in San Diego history and completely missed it … by more than an order of magnitude.
Why should we put any weight on their current predictions ?
