I think the effects we’re seeing already are at the gas pump! Gas prices *seem* to be affecting consumer spending already (depending on who you talk to) and increases at the pump can only make things worse.
If there was a full scale WAR over there (which isn’t happening yet) then I think we’d easily see $4 gasoline almost overnight, and move towards $5 or $6 depending on how bad things got over there.
I believe this will accelerate (not create) the next recession. This is why I think it’s almost futile to guess when the next recession will occur. The problem? Events!
But don’t worry, just refinance and buy a Prius! 😉
