I think the bond market is telling a bigger story about the dollar. Of course, we don’t know what kind of manipulations are going on behind closed doors, but absent any manipulation, I’d say the falling rates are a sign that something is going to happen with the dollar trade. IMHO, we’re about to see asset price deflation and other currencies lose strength against the dollar. Everyone is short the dollar by going into other currencies, commodities, stocks, real estate, etc. They are expecting someone else to pay them more, in dollars, than they paid for these things, IMHO. If everyone who is convinced that the dollar is toast is already in on the trade, who is left to buy things at a higher price? The unemployed/underemployed workers? The poor from the developing nations, whose jobs depend on those (underemployed and unemployed) people in developed nations buying more junk?
FWIW, this feels like the slowest “spring selling season” I’ve seen in the RE market for at least a decade — even slower than what was going on during the “financial crisis.” Again, sales are happening, but they are selling for less than what they would have fetched even in the 2007-2009 period, in many cases.
