I think it is good news. I’m skeptical this turn around is on the immediate horizon, though the article doesn’t really say when it’s coming. The 3 things the author cites as the source of a coming boom are probably accurate.
We are (probably) currently at unsustainable lows for new home construction. Just as 5 years ago we were at unsustainable highs. I think we’re years away from serious pent up demand on a national level. Five years ago we had way too many houses. Whether we need 3 or 4 low years, or 10 low years remains to be seen. But new home construction is a serious driver of the economy. And the most painful single industry segment of job losses suffered during the ’08-’09 recession. The (proper) failure of the segment to recover is also the reason we didn’t bounce out of the recession.
I suspect the “not really” part of the title here refers to the end of deleveraging, questioning whether thats really a good thing. The savings rate in the US steadily declined for 25 years, until the middle of the last decade, and the trend has been rising for the last 7 years. It’s flattened a little bit over the last few quarters. The effect on the economy is inverse. As the savings rate rises, it causes a drag on the economy. The rate is still very low in an historical sense (as compared to decades ago), but if it remains flat, it will create a boost in consumer spending, if, and only if personal income rises. So if we do see that scenario of a rise in personal income and a flattening of the savings rate, then it is good news. If we have a drop in the savings rate from current levels, we’re returning to the cycle that got us into this mess.
The 3rd impetus addressed in the article is energy. I haven’t had near enough caffiene yet this morning to address that issue. But it is a possibility.
Conclusion is, the article addresses some reasonable scenarios. All speculative. But none outrageously so.
