I suspect there’s a possibility that the mid-election year rise might have already started in July. If you look at the S&P500, mid-election year rallies didn’t always start in the fall. What has been “abnormal” is that previous mid election year rallies were all (at least the ones since 1962) preceded by a rather sizable decline. So far we haven’t seen that sizable decline.
As the likes of Best Buys are showing, consumers are very resilient and in my opinion that’s due to still relatively low rates and loose credits. Savings rates have gone negative and there’s no telling how negative it could get before it turns around, especially since countries from china to japan continue to be willing and able to supply us with cheap money.
