I slightly revised my analysis of the last upturn in San Diego resale home median prices (using employment lag 24 instead of employment lag 12), and present to you the graphs of the predictors of increasing home prices that I found in my number crunching.
Last time around, resale home median prices (black) didn’t go back up consistently until notices of defaults (NODs) (red) had been going down for 30-to-36 months:
[img_assist|nid=2372|title=
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Last time around, resale home median prices (black) didn’t go back up consistently until employment (red) had been going up for 24 months:
[img_assist|nid=2373|title=
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Last time around, resale home median prices (black) didn’t go back up consistently until sales (red) had been going up for three months:
[img_assist|nid=2374|title=
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[img_assist|nid=2375|title=
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So, my read is that until all three of these factors — NODs, employment, and sales — are going in the right direction, consistently, there may not be support for home prices to rise, consistently. But, when all three do turn in the right direction, consistently, it’s a signal to buy. That’s the theory, at least, based on the last upturn.
