I suggest you use the internet and get some online free quotes for annuity that will pay $100K a year starting at age 55. That’s straight annuity with joint survivor benefit. Typical cost today is $2.2 Million. That doesn’t include the COLA benefit the retirees get. That adds another $700-900K. You can estimate it yourself by looking at what it would cost to add the $16,000 COLA growth after the first 5 years, that would be a $16000 a year annuity starting at age 60, hint (about $250K). Then another $20K one at 65 (hint $300K+). Then another at 70.
OR run a retirement simulator that shows to have a 90% survivability you need less than a 4% withdrawal rate.
The reason is simple, volatility. If you thought you weathered the storm at Y2K and retired on less, 2002 would basically leave you destitute today.
Weathered 9/11 and the 2007 meltdown would have you worried if you started with less.
But quibble if you want, maybe it’s $2.5 MILLION.
Long term averages don’t matter that much either, it’s the big drops you worry about. You have to have a big enough pile to survive and continue to withdraw and be able to rebuild while withdrawing after a big drop, like in 1987, 2001, 2007.
