I read his new edition of “Irrational Exuberance” recently and what he said in the interview corresponds pretty well to what he said in the book. In the book, he gives a lot of insight on how bubbles form and how they grow. But he concludes that there’s no way of predicting where or when they will form. And there’s no way of predicting when they will pop either. It was a great book with interesting data and analysis. But, ironically, the more you analyze the data, the more you realize how uncertain the future can be. In that sense, I find Shiller’s response to be completely in line with his analysis (i.e. He acknoledges that he doesn’t REALLY know what is going to happen).
