I like sdr’s prediction of interest rates that stay below 5% throughout 2009….
Okay, my predictions – significant evidence of a mass or moderate population out migration from Southern California.
Niether new births or illegal immigration will negate the migration.
The key forces at work – massive loss of jobs, continued loss of homes, growth in credit card debt, increase in crime rate and gang activity.
Loss of demand for services, including invisible cash-only jobs like landscaping, pool maintenance, in-home childcare provided by non-citizen workforce.
Contibuting factors – possibly – fires, earthquakes, heavy rains – that could accelerate the out migration.
Like the 1990’s outpouring, people who’ve moved to California for a better life, will figure out that they can’t make a go of it and will head back to hometown USA. Non-citizen workers will think twice about braving a border crossing to attempt to find work in a shrinking US economy. Non-citizens here who can’t find work may return home.
Higher end home prices in nice San Diego zipcodes will finally succumb to downward pressure. 15% to 20% losses in as yet teflon areas like CV.
