I like Carlsbad, I live in Carlsbad (15 years now); but I never forget what it is vs. what it isn’t.
The CEOs of companies large enough to own jets don’t live in Carlsbad and won’t live in Carlsbad. They probably won’t live in Encinitas, either. They’re in Del Mar, La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe, etc.. There’s no part of Carlsbad that will even directly compete with those areas for the high rollers.
And since I prefer to use numbers to back my opinions, here’s a couple numbers for you:
The MLS reports that in 2006 there were a total of 7 sales above $2,000,000 in all of Carlsbad. Of these, 2 were oceanfront properties that back to the water (one was purchased for development of a hotel, not as a residence). Excluding those sales, the other 5 sales sold between $2,000,000 – $2,650,000.
Neighboring Encinitas is a little different: In 2006 Encinitas had 34 sales in excess of $2,000,000; of those, there were 8 sales in excess of $2,650,000.
Going back farther, the MLS reports a total of 129 sales in Encinitas in excess of $2,000,000; Carlsbad has a total of 39 such sales.
If Carlsbad isn’t even equal to Encinitas, it’s not even close to Rancho Santa Fe, which is where your jet setting CEOs are more likely to reside. RSF showed 627 sales total, and 97 such sales in 2006 alone. Not 39/7.
I think you’re looking way into the future with those forecasts. There are already a lot of vacant industrial and office properties within a 5-minute drive of So. Carlsbad and so far the N.SD companies haven’t been relocating.
So. Carlsbad will eventually mature and stabilize, at which point it will act less like a boomtown and more like a Scripps or Pt. Loma; areas where listings only come up occasionally. But before that happens they have to get done with building out all the little infil subdivisions fist, and that isn’t going to happen any time soon. It may happen by the end of the next cycle, but it certainly isn’t going to happen in the next 12 months.
