I just read this thread hoping to get a real bullish feel from the blog and it is not there. The suits on CNBC are hyping this which is the first thing that is a problem. it is one of the first places to look for confirmation of a top or bottom.
Overall my measures of sentiment have not gotten overly bullish for all the indices as a whole, yet but they are heading in that direction. Also for the Emini SP 500 they are extremely bullish, a very bad sign. There has been a shift towards this contract from the pit contract with the Commercials, and the COT readings have been much more reliable here than in the traditional pit symbol.
We are extremely overvalued vs Bonds and when we reach levels like this, big declines can happen at any time.
We are also in the seasonal time window for a drop. Overall the commercials have actually been buying this rally which is a new pattern for them being scale up momentum buyers. It has again been supportive of prices, but in the last few weeks they have started selling.
Anyone who reads my blog knows that I both called this low within a few days in advance, but also got out a little early on the rally. It has gone farther than I thought. So, I was far from perfect on this but anyone who listened to me has done well.
With some longer term road maps based on cycles calling for a top basically right here, combined with the other things I have stated, I am looking at my short term indicators for a short entry in the SP 500 and hope to see it setup this week. I think we have a sharp move down coming soon.
For those who get bewildered by how stock indexes seem to ignore macro economic trends, remember there is alot of manipulation on wall street. Also, there are discounting mechanisms as well. The PPT has been shockingly blatant recently in the futures buy programs at the end of the day on days that otherwise appeared headed sharply down.
Just watch for that mystery end of the day save in the prices on days when we are down a decent amount heading into the noon hour. One of the all time beauties I posted a picture of in my blog a couple of weeks ago.
I think they are becoming less concerned about hiding what they are doing now for some reason. It is probably because one party has such a stronghold on things that nobody can oppose them on anything. The PPT is not Barry’s baby, it has been around before he was an itch in his daddy’s pants.
