I highly doubt the government would buy military equipment from any company outside the US or even US company w/out clearance. So I think the buying from China doesn’t make any sense. the Iraq war might be draining our economy as a whole but the government contractors such as GD, Northrup, etc, are doing very well since the war started.
I agree that inverted yield curve is a sign of recession. But never before have they had inverted yield curve at such a low interest rate, so that might be a sign of how bad a recession it would/could be. Auto sales is an argument I’m not agreeing to. Up to now, the US auto sale = the health of American top 3 auto maker which employ many Americans. However, this time is a little different. Toyota has just over taken Ford as #2, Honda, Nissan, Huyndai are growing very well. So the top 3 might be struggling a lot, I can see the foreign auto maker ramping up to help offset that. It takes time but foreign auto makers have many factories here compare to before and they’re looking to expand more.
