I have not participated in this forum for some time until the last couple of days and as I have read the inner monologue of stocktrader I just felt compelled to comment. There are quite a few inconsistencies in this inner monologue about what was predicted, and what was later claimed to have been predicted. So be it, everyone has an ego.
There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace. I personally know people that have made millions on the long side during this recent move upward, yet they are fools as a blog participant who is not even a full time trader calls them? It is hardly foolish to trade a counter-trend rally off such an overextended downward condition, it is what many pros do. They are not fools. Larry Williams is one I know to use a specific name, and nobody alive could justifiably call him a fool. It really depends on what your parameters for the long side trades are. Who exactly is the fool? Predicting a 1200 level retracement is simply looking at the July low, which would serve as resistance if a rally were to reach that level, the concept of overhead supply, etc.. Basic textbook chart pattern theory there.
I certainly agree that shorting this upmove at some point will be a good trade, but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive. It seems from what I have read most people are onto this.
My last thought is that from all the research I have done over the years, I have yet to find a conclusive relationship even on a short term basis between Gold and the stock market. There are many out there who assert that you should be long GOLD if stocks drop. If you study history, there have been many declines in Gold during stock declines, so do not make that play for that reason alone.
It does seem like there are some new participants in here with alot of knowledge in trading so it is interesting to read the opinions now.
