I get the premise I just don’t think it’s too egocentric to base one’s 30 minute observation and translate it to the broader economy. My kids started school this week, I didn’t send them to school with crab legs in their lunchboxes yet I have more cash and income than I have ever had. The cold cuts and PB&J that I was stocking up on was not due to my budget and observing my purchases would give a false impression. Costco is one of the best places to buy the stuff for kid lunches, the single serving juice, yogurt, cheese, snacks are all high quality and low price, I would think some families had to hit costco before school starts but after they have been they don’t need to go for a week or two and the first week or two of school requires adjustments in routines. Different districts start on different days or weeks, some areas are still in summer mode and others are rushing to get ready and some have been in school all week.
I’m not saying that retail sales won’t be down, just that a big chunk of costco’s customers have families and their schedules at the end of August can be thrown off by the beginning of school and sports that suddenly start.
