I don’t think you’ll find a bigger group of bears anywhere, but that doesn’t mean we’re wrong. If you’ve been following this forum you’ll see that one of our favorite subjects is trying to ascertain the price point that makes re-entry into the market a profitable endeavor. That’s not what I would call sour grapes or negativity. I’d call it optimism.
The bottom line is that this region currently has a record number of listings available for sale and the volume of sales is down. Just in the last 12 months many of the lower priced residential markets have declined 10% and some more than that. There’s no reason anyone can point at to say it can’t drop another 10% – or more – in the next 12 months. If SD County was golden because everyone wants to be here, we wouldn’t be losing the high-dollar employment or the number of high-dollar wage earners we’re currently losing.
There’s nothing wrong with wanting a buy a home for your child. Everyone wants to do right by their kids. If you are confident of your staying power over the next 10 years the chances are reasonable – but by no means a lock – that you won’t lose money in the long haul. Just make sure you understand the difference between being able to suffer the results of such a decision and being able to make a good decision that doesn’t require suffering in the first place. Hopefully your employment situation has nothing to do with real estate, real-estate-driven consumer spending, or anything related to real estate.
It kinda looks like you’ve already made up your mind. If so we wish you and yours well, and we sincerely hope not to see your house come up with some tale of woe on Craig’s List. But if you haven’t come to a decision, try this: Write down your 3 biggest reasons why you think the market won’t continue to decline and your 3 biggest reasons why you think it might decline. Then compare your best reasons for each side of the argument and see which ones are based more on facts and data vs. which ones are based on what other people are saying.
