I don’t think anyone can point to a specific number and say “that many foreclosures will trigger a recession”. Our economy is too complex and dynamic for a singular issue to cause a meltdown. Obviously, more foreclosures signal greater economic distress.
My biggest criticism of your title was that instead of using Cagan’s exact words you chose a more bearish term instead of accurately quoting Cagan. If you had quoted him accurately, there would be no criticism.
Now you are suggesting that Cagan misused the word in the story. Perhaps he did – we’ll likely never know. But what is more probable – that Cagan misused the word, or that you misinterpreted his quote in your haste to post another bearish article? Again, I’m on your side, and believe the market is in the process of tanking, but I’m inclined to believe that the author of the quote actually meant what he said in his quote, and not your interpretation of what you thought he meant to say. I think we’re overanalyzing the issue when we question what Cagan “meant”; why not just assume that he’s rationale and meant what he said? His quote is scary enough without turning it into a doomsday guarantee, which was my point the entire time.
