I dont argue with any of the graphs he has, or the projections. Everything makes perfect sense. Except it is not how it is playing out. He does not mention government interventions, he doesn’t talk about moratoriums, he doesn’t dare mention our esteemed president Obama.
His analysis is exactly the way I USED to analyze things until I became much more cycnical. He glossed over the stress tests. What happened Friday? The financials rallied. The FED CUT DEALS WITH THE BANKS PRIOR TO THE FREAKING OUTCOME!
Guys it is a joke. A very bad joke.
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I am hoping for one of a few things. That indeed the foreclosures will ramp up. That gives me some hope. Also the more failing treasury auctions the better, although that event will roll out much more slowly then we need. The 2011 resets and all that other stuff is something that our esteemed government can take care of.
For those of you thinking about the investors who can block short sales or loan mods, do you think the bond holders who had secured debt for chrysler felt the same way before the government told them to f. off?
Perhaps I have become overly cycnical…. I certainly hope so.
The biggest and I mean HUGEST flaw in the analysis of many is that it is based on a level playing field that is more or less free market based. The reality at least that I am seeing is that the market is becoming less free everyday. Jeez the banks are not even the banks anymore right? Are they totally unfettered, operating with no obligations to the government now?
The next few months will be quite telling and if we have a nice ramp up in foreclosures hitting the market I will be less pissy.
