I cannot believe that some people are suggesting that overall this is good for the local economy. It’s not. Its going to be good for a tiny segment of the workforce who deal directly with the rebuilding process, but most everyone else will be effected, for the negative.
The money coming in, will be insurance payouts, which almost never equal the total net loss. Paying to rebuild a structure still leaves the homeowner footing the bill for a huge gap for things that insurance doesn’t cover. So the homeowners who lost property are mostly all net losers here.
A few businesses which sell items needed for reconstruction will see a short term bump. But many businesses which depend on things like tourism, or discretionariy spending, will be hurt because homeowners trying to rebuild won’t be going to Legoland, or buying boats, or taking vacations.
Who is going to pay for the cost to fight the fires? FEMA? The Feds? State and Local taxes? Yep… And just exactly who pays for those? Every taxpayer, including local San Diego tax payers. Either their taxes will go up, or that money will get diverted from other projects, to pay for the fire efforts. The bridge and sewer companies who were slated to win jobs in 2008, might have to wait until the budget recovers before they can start their projects. That’s not profit, that’s diversion of money to pay for lost opportunity.
If you thought there were no buyers for SD property before, what do you think will happen now? All those houses untouched by fires, just lost a definite percentage of potential buyers. Sales will slow even more than before the fires.
Not to mention how many people who lost how many man hours of work and various productivity due to time spend evacuated… that money will never be returned. Many small business lose revenue that won’t be replaced.
Carpenters, roofers, contrators and Home Depot will win in the short term. Almost every one else loses in the long term.
I work in the Disaster Recovery industry, so trust me, I know. Natural disasters are not good for the local economy.
