I bought bond today. I moved some money in muni money market to long term muni mutual fund.
10 yr treasury yields 3.21% now slightly below 3.23% reached on Oct 5th. But 30 year yield 3.45%, highest since 2014.
I don’t believe longer term inflation theory or a high long bond yield in future. I still have the risk of yield going up more, but the interest difference between my fund and money market will allow some loss and I can still be ahead.
Aging population in developed world and even more serious aging issue will happen to China next a few decades. With Low growth in non-U.S world, slowing economy of China, U.S. in later economic cycle, baby boomers with tons of investable money chasing fixed income, I am betting bond yield will actually drop with 3-5 years time horizon.
