I believe the bottom to be in the 2010-2011 timeframe and I think the damage will vary by housing type and location.
Perry I am not declaring immunity for any given zip code. I am just saying the damage will vary. I base this statement on the following:
1 – demand for that particular zip code or map code
2 – quality of the buyer. I think different areas attract different buyers with respect to demograhics, financial assets and employment types.
3 – distress in that area. I do not believe the foreclosure rate will be the same in every area. I think it will vary and in some cases that variance will be substantial.
4 – equity/mindset of the sellers. I believe that the profiles of sellers of different regions will alter each one. Sellers with high equity stakes AND emotional attachments will more likely leg it out and pass the home on to the kids, rent it out, or die in it.
Perry, don’t get me wrong. Again I am not declaring immunity for anyone however I do sincerely believe there will be different rates of decline and different bottoms. Areas that had high speculation ratios, risky financing vehicles, or homeowners that stretched and are now realizing it is not happening will indeed get hit harder then peer areas that do not. It doesn’t mean there will not be foreclosures in Del Mar, or La Jolla or RSF but I don’t believe there will be enough to cause major distress in these areas when compared to say downtown or Eastlake. Could these premium places see 20-30% hits? Perhaps they could indeed. Will those hits match counterparts in outlying areas or heavier run up areas or areas with widespread foreclosures? In my opinion no.
