I am no expert, so take someone elses advice with more weight, but your time frame is wrong. The tax credit doesnt end April 30th. It is for contracts signed by April 30th, closing (when they count sales) can go on till the end of June. May, June, July are very strong months for housing anyways, and CA just upped the anti as well. And that doesnt even start untill May 1st.
Basically the various forms of gov tax credits have rigged the system till after July.
If you want an imperfect lead indicator, id recomend looking at Aug and Sept NEW home sales. Those are counted at contract signing, not closing. If they start falling, start planning on how you can cash in on the soon to be upcoming tax credit.
