I also think that your ideas have merit. I don’t think anyone disagrees about upcoming inflation and much higher interest rates. I think the biggest question is how long they can keep the charade going. I believe the can keep it going for quite awhile and an external catalyst will be the event that cracks it open.
The question is will it be a year, 2 years, 5 years? Hard to say.
Given the rates of return on any investment and the potential for rampant rates, it is very hard to argue with logic that says you can have a tangible asset using borrowed money at a rate that will be phenomally low compared to rates in the future.
The depreciation question should not be ignored though. How much will property depreciate AT current interest rate levels. Then how much further will it depreciate when the rates skyrocket? Tough call isnt it? If rates go as high as I think they will, then I think your logic is correct.
Prediction, look for more federal intervention into the housing market this year in the form of stimulus.
